A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Each composes two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
