Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: optimistic declarations are delivered from various governments. Significant resources is devoted on containing specific proposals. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from across the border, a ability afforded by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching cruise missiles roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably supplied through Western nations. Every launch shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: perhaps the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from ruin and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a large-caliber weapon engaged a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, destruction and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, debate and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, undoubtedly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership functions according to a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from thinking that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its favour in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing people and territory but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: personal goals to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to eliminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new plans based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect certain reluctance to modify developments, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
